I am about to flip a coin. Can you predict whether it will be heads or tails?
You might have gotten it right. (It was heads.) But if so, you were lucky. Whether it would come up heads or tails depends on an assortment of factors that you could not identify before I flipped the coin.
In principle, of course, reliable predictions could be made. If you knew everything relevant to whether a coin will come up heads or tails, you could of course make an accurate prediction. So let’s not talk about randomness. That is not the problem. The problem is the absence of essential information.
With respect to the role of randomness, here is an illuminating exchange I had with ChatGPT:
ME: If I flip a coin, can you predict whether it will come up heads or tails?
CHATGPT: No, I can’t predict the outcome of a coin flip. A fair coin toss is random, and each flip has an equal 50% chance of coming up heads or tails. If you’d like, I can simulate a coin flip for you! 😊
ME: Why can’t you predict the outcome of a coin flip?
CHATGPT: Predicting the outcome of a coin flip is nearly impossible because it depends on a complex combination of factors, including: