Climate Change and the Primacy of Politics
I.
Wind turbines do not “cause cancer.” Offshore wind farms are not “driving whales loco.” And wind power is not “the most expensive form of energy,” no matter what the president of the United States says. It’s one of the cheapest.
Donald Trump tells lots of dopey lies about wind. “If you have a windmill anywhere near your house, congratulations, it just went down seventy-five percent in value.” No, studies have found virtually no impact on home prices. “The whole thing is a con job. Germany tried it, it didn’t work.” No, wind is Germany’s largest source of electricity. “You won’t find any wind farms in China.” No, China has more wind farms than the rest of the world combined. “You want to see a bird graveyard? Go under a windmill. You’ll see more than you’ve ever seen in your life.” No, wind turbines cause 0.01 percent of bird deaths, orders of magnitude fewer than cats, cars, or windows. ”The turbines start to rust and rot in eight years.” No, they don’t. They just don’t.
It is true, as the president often points out, that wind farms do not generate power when the wind isn’t blowing. But electric utilities in Republican-controlled Texas, which is America’s top wind-producing state despite its oil-soaked politics, are aware of this meteorological complication, which is why the story that Trump loves to tell about a Texas woman on a windless night rings about as true as his carcinogenic turbines or loco whales: “She says to her husband, ‘Is the wind blowing? I’d love to watch a show tonight, darling, but the wind hasn’t blown for three days. Darling, please tell the wind to blow.’”
It’s all bullshit, darling — but consequential bullshit, because the president of the United States has launched an all-out war on the wind industry. He has not only cut off federal subsidies, he has also weaponized the federal bureaucracy to block new turbines, from the Department of Transportation, which is reviewing their alleged risks to planes and railroads, to the Department of Health and Human Services, which has suggested they might emit electromagnetic death rays. The Departments of the Interior and Defense have even shut down work on offshore wind farms already under construction, concocting bogus national security justifications about how they might interfere with military radar or somehow facilitate underwater drone attacks.
Much of the commentary about Trump’s anti-wind campaign has emphasized its hypocrisy. He claims to want Energy Dominance — he declared a national emergency because our energy supply is supposedly inadequate — but he is relentlessly throttling a fast-growing energy source that already provides ten percent of our electricity. He claims energy prices are too high, but he is regularly intervening in energy markets to prop up exorbitantly expensive coal plants while cracking down on affordable wind. He is using bird protection laws to harass wind developers while loosening those laws for oil and gas companies that kill far more birds. He is forcing lickspittle lackeys like Interior Secretary Doug Burgum — who was a wind supporter when he was governor of North Dakota! — to spew preposterous talking points about how wind doesn’t work.
Yes, it’s all hypocritical. But it’s also terrible. As naive as it sounds, presidents should not lie. Presidents should not flout laws and gouge consumers and pretend to care about birds and whales in order to cripple industries they hate.
What’s really terrible about Trump’s jihad is that wind power is clean power, while his beloved coal and gas plants emit greenhouse gases that trap heat in the atmosphere. He claims that climate change is a hoax, but that is rubbish, too. Climate change is real, it is here, it is man-made, and it really is a problem. There hasn’t been this much carbon in the atmosphere in three million years. The earth has not heated this quickly in 485 million years. Global warming is already contributing to vicious wildfires in California and even Siberia; freakish heat waves in Arizona and West Africa; unprecedented ice melts in Greenland and Antarctica; catastrophic floods in North Carolina and Pakistan; and biblical swarms of locusts in India and Kenya. The last ten years were the ten hottest years on record, and swarms of locusts are generally reliable indicators that things are not going so well.
That said, some climate activists have an annoying habit of exaggerating how badly things are going. Global warming is making droughts and floods worse, but it is not making them happen. In fact, global warming does not always make everything worse; tropical hurricanes, for example, do not seem to be getting more frequent, defying a lot of shrill eco-catastrophism. Apocalyptic rhetoric about how it’s game over for the climate if we do not cut greenhouse emissions 43% by 2030 is not only annoying but wrong. There’s no such thing as game over for the climate. Carbon gradually accumulates in the atmosphere, so the earth gets a tiny bit warmer every time a fossil fuel is combusted or a forest is clear-cut. So it’s true that the more carbon we emit, the worse disasters such as Superstorm Sandy or the current mega-drought in the Horn of Africa will get, and that the earth will keep getting warmer until we somehow start removing more carbon from the sky than our cars and buildings and power plants and deforestation and wildfires are putting up there. But there is no inflection point where we all suddenly die or are all doomed. There is only better and worse.
And some things are getting better. The costs of wind energy and especially solar energy — as well as batteries to store wind and solar electricity when it isn’t windy or sunny — have plummeted. A global clean-energy revolution is underway; ninety percent of new power plants are now zero-emissions. Less than two decades after the documentary Who Killed the Electric Car? bemoaned humanity’s unbreakable addiction to gasoline-fueled transportation, a quarter of new automotive sales are now all-electric. The UN’s consensus business-as-usual scientific forecast for warming in 2100 has improved from an unfathomably hideous five degrees Celsius to under three degrees — still awful, but not human-extinction awful. It would be nice if more environmentalists acknowledged that better is better than worse.
Climate issues are more complicated than the nose-ringed Just Stop Oil pests who glue themselves to museums or the contemptuous Bluesky in-crowd that snarks about insufficiently radical Democrats would have you believe. The climate left is often clueless about politics, and sometimes also about climate; the knee-jerk naysayers who fight zero-emissions nuclear plants, solar panels in tortoise habitats, and the transmission lines necessary to distribute renewable power to metropolitan areas are not doing the environment any favors. I recently wrote a book about the food piece of the climate problem, and it’s appalling how many enviros are making it worse by pushing fake solutions like farm-grown biofuels and organic agriculture.
Honestly, though, it feels nutty to nitpick activist excesses when Trump is gleefully and relentlessly trashing the climate. He is almost as hostile to solar as he is to wind, even though solar is as transformative a technology as artificial intelligence. “We will not approve wind or farmer destroying Solar,” he announced, in defiance of all kinds of laws, on Truth Social. “The days of stupidity are over in the USA!” (An epitaph if there ever was one, from the scientific savant who routinely hails the existence of winter weather as proof that global warming isn’t real.) Do we really need to harp on the left’s ill-conceived crusades against fracking, plastic straws, and chemical fertilizer when Trump and his thugs are proclaiming unlimited power to crush renewables, bragging about their “concierge, white-glove service” for fossil-fuel interests, and defending a foreign invasion with petro-imperialist rhetoric straight out of Just Stop Oil’s fever dreams? I think we do, if we are sincere about fixing the problem someday, but we also need to acknowledge that our harping will not help much right now.
It is boring to point out that the orange man is bad on climate, but the orange man is very bad on climate. He is a deranged and tireless advocate for carbon pollution. He is surrendering the race to lead the energy economy of the future to China. And for climate obsessives like me, he is a frustrating distraction from more interesting debates that will help shape the future of our country and our species long after he is gone. I suspect that immigration obsessives, rule-of-law obsessives, and other wonks who cringe at the excesses of Trump’s “resistance” critics even though Trump is very bad on their issues can relate. We are in a politically and rhetorically tricky position.
So let us stipulate his unmitigated climate badness, and try to think about how to make the best of this bad situation. What should those of us who prefer less badness focus on as Trump takes aim at our atmosphere? What should we freak out about and what should we roll our eyes about? And what is a realistic save-the-climate strategy for this screw-the-climate era?
II.
If Kamala Harris were president and the Democrats held Congress, we would be talking about very different climate questions. Would the efficiency benefits of carbon taxes on fossil fuels, red meat, and other high-emissions products justify their political cost? Should the generous subsidies for solar, wind, electric cars, and other climate-friendly technologies in the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act be expanded or merely extended? How much more should Washington increase its spending on energy and agriculture research? How can America, which is now responsible for twelve percent of global emissions, use its leadership to help the rest of the world rein in the other eighty-eight percent?
Obviously those questions are currently irrelevant. Trump has gutted environmental regulation and enforcement, slashed research funding, yanked America out of the global climate community, and teamed up with the Republican Congress to roll back Biden’s green subsidies. You don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to believe that he’s in cahoots with petro-dictators in Russia and the Middle East as well as the American petro-giants he has invited to Venezuela. You just have to read the news.
The first relevant question to ask amid this tsunami of terribleness is whether all American climate progress is dead as long as the climate deniers control Washington. The answer is, not necessarily, or at least not entirely.
For example, even though most congressional Republicans are now hostile to wind and solar — and the others won’t buck Trump — there is bipartisan enthusiasm for geothermal projects that transform underground heat into clean round-the-clock energy. The same is increasingly true for nuclear power, which is also clean and continuous, albeit costly and hard to build; to their credit, most green groups and non-hippie Democrats now acknowledge its importance. And solar has gotten so cheap and awesome that Republican opposition can only slow its expansion; Democratic states and cities (foreshadowing alert) can help to accelerate its growth — as well as batteries, heat pumps, electric-vehicle chargers, and other green stuff — with supportive policies. This would also be a nice time for Democrats to stop flacking for corn ethanol and other biofuel boondoggles — climate disasters masquerading as climate solutions that enjoy bipartisan support only because Democrats keep pandering to farmers who will never vote for them.
The most prominent debate with bipartisan potential, over “permit reform,” is trickier. These days, the main obstacle to clean energy development is no longer cost; it is the maze of legal and procedural roadblocks that give opponents enormous power to delay and block projects. Many environmentalists hate permit reform, because they like delaying and blocking permits, and a more streamlined process could accelerate fossil-energy projects as well as clean-energy projects. But since clean energy, as enviros often remind us, can usually outcompete dirty on a level playing field, the climate benefits of easing all energy permitting would far outweigh the costs. It is more important to help clean alternatives that can reduce demand for fossil fuels get even cheaper and more abundant than it is to try to stop American companies from supplying fossil fuels that consumers still demand. The Stone Age didn’t end because of restrictions on stone extraction, which is why after decades of no, smart environmentalists are learning to say yes.
Except that they really can’t say yes to reform right now, because Trump would make them look silly. As long as he can keep halting permitted clean-energy projects, permit reform would just be dirty-energy permit reform.
So climate progress in the United States, while conceivable, will be a tough slog until the November midterms, when Democrats have a chance to break up the Republican monopoly on federal power. (More foreshadowing!) The immediate challenge is to distinguish catastrophes from annoyances, the truly destructive and irreversible badness from insignificant or temporary badness. It is also wise to focus on stoppable badness. Judges are already blocking Trump’s attacks on permitted wind farms. And why not force his team to spend time and energy defending the indefensible, like its refusal to enforce air or water pollution laws for the filthiest and creakiest coal plants? Even though there is really no way to force environment-haters to protect the environment, it’s a righteous and popular fight to pick. The same goes for resistance to Trump’s assaults on research and data collection. Nobody asked for that, and the politics of climate matters. (Last foreshadowing alert!)
On the other hand, a lot of the news that triggers climate hawks is less important than it sounds. Climate progress can be measured simply — by how much and how quickly the world reduces emissions — so the various pledges and deadlines that get walked back and extended by nations and corporations don’t matter much. Actions and legislation are what affect emissions. Similarly, it’s fine to be angry that Trump pulled the United States out of a slew of global climate agreements, but we wouldn’t honor those agreements anyway while he’s president, and we can always rejoin once he’s gone. More troubling is the way Trump used the threat of tariffs and visa restrictions to bully the rest of the world into scrapping a deal to slash emissions from the shipping industry. Our mad king successfully exercised American power on behalf of global warming — and once the deal was scuttled, he enacted tariffs and visa restrictions anyway.
The most contentious debate in climate circles — it is related to permit reform — is whether to focus on fighting drilling projects, pipelines, new terminals for exporting liquified natural gas, and other new fossil-fuel infrastructure in the United States, or whether activists should pivot to yes-environmentalism focused on promoting clean energy.
The correct answer is: Pivot! The way to phase out dirty is to make clean even more affordable and reliable. The way to do that is to build more wind and solar to achieve greater economies of scale, more battery storage to make wind and solar less intermittent, more transmission lines to deliver it to consumers, and more electric-vehicle chargers to combat the range anxiety that is slowing the transition away from gasoline. And the center-left writer Matthew Yglesias was right to argue not long ago in the New York Times that American fossil energy is usually cleaner than foreign fossil energy, even though the climate movement’s hall monitors absurdly denounced him as a denier. Energy markets are complex, and Yglesias arguably overstated the climate benefits of expanding American oil production, but restricting it wouldn’t help, either; other countries will supply the oil we consume until we don’t consume it anymore. And blocking all natural gas is definitely counterproductive, especially now that the rush to build AI-driven data centers is creating a rush to build new power plants to meet projected spikes in electricity demand; electrification is vital for decarbonization, and gas-fired electricity is much cleaner than coal, even if it isn’t clean as wind or solar.
Yglesias also pointed out that the all-of-the-above approach to energy is more popular than all-out opposition to fossil fuels, especially in states such as Pennsylvania (which does a lot of fracking) and Michigan (which has a lot of conventional vehicle factories). Polls suggest that climate is an extremely low priority for most American voters, largely because they associate it with environmental sacrifices that create higher prices. That is no longer always true — coal is fading because it is no longer cheap — but sometimes it is true. Even if it were never true, there is a good reason that President Obama touted the all-of-the-above approach in swing states, and that center-left leaders in Mexico and Canada support their petroleum industries. Just Stop Oil is a terribly unpopular message.
And politics, after all, is a popularity contest.
III.
Climate politics are inherently tough. How do you get voters to care about an invisible and mostly imperceptible enemy such as carbon dioxide? A few extra degrees of warmth by 2100 doesn’t sound so horrific, especially to people who will not be alive in 2100. Americans like sport-utility vehicles, cheeseburgers, air conditioning, plastic toys imported from Asia, moving sidewalks, and other planet-warming stuff. They are less fond of policies that force them to make sacrifices to reduce emissions without forcing other countries to make the same sacrifices.
And yet America has enacted some climate-friendly policies. Obama’s stimulus in 2009 poured an astonishing $90 billion into clean energy, jump-starting solar, electric cars, and LED lighting. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, the most ambitious climate law in world history, had over four times as much green spending. Blue states such as Colorado, Washington, and Minnesota have also passed massive climate initiatives, as have blue cities such as Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York.
It turns out that there is one foolproof strategy to ensure better climate policies. This “one weird trick,” as the climate writer David Roberts calls it, does not involve throwing soup at famous paintings, or talking about the climate in ways that emphasize hope or fear or relatable storytelling, or talking about the climate at all. It is not about mobilizing climate voters, or building bridges to climate skeptics, or persuading ordinary Americans that climate change is already affecting their lives right now.
The one weird trick is to elect Democrats.
I recognize that this is an awkward point for a nonpartisan journalist to make, but it’s simply a fact that Democrats almost always try to enact policies that help the climate, while Republicans almost always try to block and reverse them. Every Democrat in Congress voted for the Inflation Reduction Act; every Republican voted no. The worst Democrat on climate, Senator Joe Manchin from the coal country of West Virginia, got the bill across the finish line, even as climate activists ferociously attacked him as a planet-killer; the best Republicans on climate all tried to stop him. Climate policy has become another symbolic battlefield in America’s political-cultural wars, with Trump trashing anything climate-related as part of a communist-elitist Green New Scam designed to force real Americans to eat bugs; Democrats seizing the issue as a metaphor for Neanderthal Republican hostility to science and facts; and Republicans opposing anything Trump is against and libs are for. But it doesn’t really matter why the issue has become so partisan. What matters is that it has.
This idea that climate action depends on the electoral success of Democrats, rather than their climate rhetoric or commitments, has uncomfortable implications for climate activism. It suggests green groups should stop pressuring Democratic candidates in states such as Texas and Ohio to embrace Green New Deal talking points about a hundred-percent renewable grid or climate justice for minorities, and give them a pass to take more moderate positions that enhance their electability. Ivory Soap environmentalism that rejects 99.44 percent pure as a sellout to Big Oil — such as the activists who held a sit-in in Nancy Pelosi’s office and gave Joe Biden’s absurdly ambitious $1.7 trillion climate proposal an F-minus grade — does not seem like a realistic path to electoral majorities. Activists angry about Arizona Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego’s vision of the American Dream as a big-ass truck should probably keep their anger to themselves. If Mary Peltola thinks supporting Alaska’s oil industry will help her flip its Senate seat blue, they should pretend not to hear her — unless she actually wants them to attack her, in which case they should oblige.
Certain “eco-realists” believe Democrats should stop talking about climate at all, since it polls poorly and reminds voters of Democratic attitudes that they dislike; that is a bit extreme, I think, since denying climate science and throttling wind farms also polls poorly. Yet it’s certainly true that activists who bash Democratic #ClimateSilence and demand maximalist climate promises are not doing the climate any favors. Neither Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic socialist mayor of New York, nor Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic centrist governor of Virginia, talked much about climate on the campaign trail, but both won, and both will be climate-friendlier than their opponents would have been. Even Tom Steyer, the billionaire climate activist who ran for president in 2020 on a climate platform, is soft-peddling climate now that he is running for governor — in California!
What they’re all talking about instead is “affordability,” because Americans are much more upset about high prices than high atmospheric carbon levels. There is a reason why the Inflation Reduction Act wasn’t called the Climate Change Prevention Act. Even environmental groups have pivoted to affordability, pointing out that Trump’s assaults on wind and solar are jacking up energy prices. Of course, they do not also point out that Trump’s drill-baby-drill approach to oil and gas can decrease energy prices. They hate fossil fuels way more than they love affordability.
Politics is not like climate science, where models can predict with some precision how various inputs will change the world, so reasonable people can disagree about what Democrats and climate advocates should say and do if their objective is maximizing Democratic electoral success. I suspect low-volume moderation that appeals to swing voters will work better than heighten-the-contradictions extremism that fires up base voters, but I am a moderate, so maybe I am wish-casting. I also suspect that deprioritizing climate issues will make Democrats more popular, but I am a climate obsessive, so I hope I’m wrong.
Clearly, though, maximizing Democratic electoral success should be the objective. The environmental regress in Trump’s Washington’s will continue unless Democrats take back at least one house of Congress later this year. How else will they stop Trump from shutting down climate labs, grounding satellites that collect climate data, and terminating grants that include the word “climate”? And significant climate progress in America will be impossible unless Democrats take back the White House and Congress in 2028; that is the only way to undo Trump’s mishigaas, and to enact new laws and regulations (remember regulations?), and to rejoin the global climate community. Yet very few climate leaders or climate analysts like to admit that partisan political victories ought to be the top American climate priority. It’s unsatisfying. It feels so, well, us versus them. It is certainly orthogonal to the factional and ideological battles inside the Democratic party that many find more inspiring, urgent and even enjoyable. It doesn’t get as many clicks.
These observations about the unavoidability of raw politics apply just as well to the immigration crisis, the rule-of-law crisis, and all the other crises Trump has created. I don’t know whether “Abolish ICE” is good politics or bad politics for Democrats, but I do know that the political question is more important right now than the policy question, because the only path to better immigration policy is to beat Trump and the Republicans. The same is true of Medicare for All, packing the Supreme Court, and just about any other Democratic proposal. Until there is a Democratic president and Congress, they are only useful insofar as they make a Democratic president and Congress more likely. Save the circular firing squads over policy issues for that blessed day when they might actually influence policy.
We have all been wisely taught to distinguish, in theory and in practice, between policy and politics, and as a policy dork it is painful to admit that right now good politics matters more than good ideas. It is not insightful or distinctive or interesting to recognize that the orange man is very bad — and it is a bit cringeworthy to echo the “resistance” posters who screech about him all day long — but he really is very bad. For the sake of the whales, the country, and the climate that envelops the whole world, what matters most is beating him and his enablers. Only then will the days of stupidity be over in the USA.